South Florida Real Estate Blog - Updates & Realty News

Last week offered a rude awakening for anyone who assumed the housing bust was over. As existing home sales slumped and home-building stocks sank, Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities Group came out with a scary pre-Halloween report about the extent of the “shadow” housing inventory—the overhang of likely-to-be-foreclosed homes that have yet to hit the market.

Various pundits have estimated the size of this shadow inventory in the millions. Ms. Goodman put a more specific estimate on it: 7 million homes. That’s well above the 5.1 million annual U.S. sales rate for previously occupied homes, as reported for August.

“We are concerned that, in light of this overhang, the housing market stabilization is temporary, based on seasonal factors, and prices can deteriorate further,” the report concludes.

Of course, there are always some homes destined for foreclosure. But usually the number isn’t enormous. In early 2005, near the peak of the housing bubble, the total was about 1.27 million, Ms. Goodman says.

So how does she get to 7 million now? Ms. Goodman uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association to estimate there are 55.9 million American homes with mortgage debt. She notes that at the end of the second quarter, an MBA survey found that more than 13% of single-family home mortgages were at least 30 days delinquent or in foreclosure.

Then Ms. Goodman looked at “cure” rates, the percentage of delinquent loans that return to current status. Those cure rates lately have been puny. The report assumes that about 99% of loans that are 90 days or more overdue will result in homes lost to foreclosure. The assumption for those 60 days or more delinquent is that 96% are toast, and for 30 days or more, 72%.  All in all, she estimates that 12.4% of the mortgages outstanding as of June 30—representing about 7 million homes—are going to end up changing hands on the courthouse steps.  complete story

Source: WSJ.com - James R. Hagerty

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Posted by Real Estate - Associates on October 3rd, 2009 8:48 PMPost a Comment (0)
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